| 1 |
Some Background in Probability |
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1.1 |
Introduction |
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1.2 |
Probability |
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1.3 |
Conditional probability and independence |
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1.4 |
Discrete random variables |
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1.5 |
Continuous random variables |
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1.6 |
Mean and variance |
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1.7 |
Some standard discrete probability distributions |
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1.8 |
Some standard continuous probability distributions |
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1.9 |
Generating functions |
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1.10 |
Conditional expectation |
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Problems |
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| 2 |
Some Gambling Problems |
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2.1 |
Gambler's ruin |
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2.2 |
Probability of ruin |
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2.3 |
Some numerical simulations |
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2.4 |
Expected duration of the game |
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2.5 |
Some variations of gambler's ruin |
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Problems |
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| 3 |
Random Walks |
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3.1 |
Introduction |
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3.2 |
Unrestricted random walks |
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3.3 |
Probability distribution after n steps |
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3.4 |
First returns of the symmetric random walk |
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3.5 |
Other random walks |
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Problems |
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| 4 |
Markov Chains |
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4.1 |
States and transitions |
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4.2 |
Transition probabilities |
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4.3 |
General two-state Markov chain |
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4.4 |
Powers of the transition matrix for the m-state chain |
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4.5 |
Gambler's ruin as a Markov chain |
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4.6 |
Classification of states |
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4.7 |
Classification of chains |
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Problems |
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| 5 |
Poisson Processes |
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5.1 |
Introduction |
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5.2 |
The Poisson process |
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5.3 |
Partition theorem approach |
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5.4 |
Iterative method |
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5.5 |
The generating function |
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5.6 |
Variance for the Poisson process |
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5.7 |
Arrival times |
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5.8 |
Summary of the Poisson process |
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Problems |
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| 6 |
Birth and Death Processes |
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6.1 |
Introduction |
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6.2 |
The birth process |
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6.3 |
Birth process: generating function equation |
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6.4 |
The death process |
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6.5 |
The combined birth and death process |
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6.6 |
General population processes |
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Problems |
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| 7 |
Queues |
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7.1 |
Introduction |
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7.2 |
The single server queue |
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7.3 |
The stationary process |
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7.4 |
Queues with multiple servers |
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7.5 |
Queues with fixed service times |
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7.6 |
Classification of queues |
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7.7 |
A general approach to the M(λ)/G/1 queue |
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Problems |
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| 8 |
Reliability and Renewal |
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8.1 |
Introduction |
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8.2 |
The reliability function |
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8.3 |
The exponential distribution and reliability |
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8.4 |
Mean time to failure |
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8.5 |
Reliability of series and parallel systems |
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8.6 |
Renewal processes |
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8.7 |
Expected number of renewals |
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Problems |
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| 9 |
Branching and Other Random Processes |
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9.1 |
Introduction |
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9.2 |
Generational growth |
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9.3 |
Mean and variance |
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9.4 |
Probability of extinction |
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9.5 |
Branching processes and martingales |
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9.6 |
Stopping rules |
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9.7 |
The simple epidemic |
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9.8 |
An iterative scheme for the simple epidemic |
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Problems |
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| 10 |
Computer Simulations and Projects |
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Appendix |
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References and Further Reading |
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Answers and Comments on some of the end-of-chapter Problems |